Table of Contents
Introduction
The WILMAR Project
Thesis Objective - Wind Speed Forecast Error Module
Previous Research on Wind Speed and Wind Power Forecast Erro
Short-term Wind Power Prediction Models
Time Series Models
Physical Models
Statistical Models
Models Used in this Thesis Project
Numerical Weather Prediction Models
DMI HIgh-Resolution Limited-Area Model (HIRLAM)
DWD LM (Lokal-Modell)
Wind Power Prediction Models
Prediktor
Wind Power Prediction Tool (WPPT)
Time-Series Models
Uni-Variate ARMA(1,1) Method
Multivariate ARMA(1,1) Time Series Method
Data
DMI Prediktor and DWD Prediktor Data Sets
Wind Power Prediction Tool Data Set
Results
Measures of Wind Speed Forecast Error
Aggregate Wind Speed Forecast Errors
Variation of Wind Speed Forecast Errors
Variation of Wind Speed Forecast Errors with Length of Data
Using Wind Power Measurements to Calculate Wind Speed Foreca
Wind Speed Forecast Error Simulations using the Multi-Variat
Recommendations for ARMA(1,1) Parameters
Recommendations for Uni-Variate ARMA(1,1) Parameters
Recommendations for Multi-Variate ARMA(1,1) Parameters
Improvement of Wind Speed Forecasts Over Time
Conclusions
Applications of Simulated Wind Speed Forecast Errors
Assumptions of the Multi-Variate ARMA(1,1) Time-Series Model
Errors in the Wind Speed Forecast Error Distribution Dependi
Topics for Further Investigation
Time-Series Models
Improvements to the Multi-Variate ARMA(1,1) Time-Series Mode
Other Time-Series Models
Wind Speed Forecast Error Simulation in Other Situations
Wind Power Forecast Error Simulation
Glossary
References
